09: 04: 2026
A new semiannual fertilizer outlook by Rabobank’s RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness team paints a sobering picture for growers in 2026. Led by Bruno Fonseca, Senior Analyst Farm Inputs, alongside global strategists Cindy van Rijswick and Stephen Nicholson, and supported by a team of regional analysts, the study highlights how geopolitical tensions are reshaping fertilizer markets and, in turn, farm economics.
At the heart of the disruption is the Middle East conflict, which has significantly constrained global fertilizer trade. The effective closure of key shipping routes has removed large volumes of fertilizers and essential inputs from circulation, triggering a supply shock that cannot easily be replaced. According to the Rabobank analysis, this has created a market defined by tight availability, sharply rising prices, and sustained volatility across nitrogen, phosphate, and potash segments.
For flower growers, the implications are immediate. Fertilizer affordability has deteriorated rapidly as input prices rise much faster than agricultural commodity prices. This imbalance is compressing margins and forcing growers worldwide to reconsider how and when they apply nutrients. The report notes that affordability has moved firmly into negative territory and is expected to remain constrained throughout most of 2026.
Nitrogen fertilizers are the most affected. Disruptions in trade flows, combined with rising energy costs, have pushed prices significantly higher, with global demand expected to contract as growers reduce application rates. Phosphate markets are experiencing similar pressure, with high input costs and supply limitations expected to keep prices elevated into 2027. Potash has remained relatively more stable, but even here, demand is softening as growers prioritize more immediately critical nutrients.
The study’s regional analysis, including contributions from Doriana Milenkova, Senior Analyst Europe and Africa, points to a complex situation across Africa. While there are no widespread physical shortages at present, prices have risen sharply, with urea increasing by close to 40 percent in some regions and phosphates by 10 to 15 percent. North African producers such as Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco are playing a critical role in stabilizing global supply, but they too face constraints linked to energy costs and shifting trade flows.
For Kenya’s floriculture sector, which depends heavily on consistent, high quality inputs, these developments translate into mounting cost pressure. Fertilizer remains central to achieving the stem length, bud formation, and uniformity required in export markets. As costs rise, growers are being forced to strike a delicate balance between maintaining quality and protecting margins.
The Rabobank report suggests that this environment will accelerate a shift toward greater efficiency. Rather than simply reducing fertilizer use, growers are likely to focus on optimizing nutrient application through precision fertigation, improved monitoring, and tighter agronomic control. The role of biological inputs and biostimulants is also expected to expand as farms look for ways to enhance nutrient uptake and reduce dependency on traditional fertilizers.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains challenging. Even if geopolitical tensions ease, Rabobank analysts caution that normalization of fertilizer markets will be slow. Supply chains will take time to recover, and affordability is expected to remain under pressure well into the year. There is also a broader concern that sustained high prices could lead to reduced global fertilizer use, with potential knock on effects on crop yields and quality in future seasons.
The message for flower growers is clear. Fertilizer is no longer just a routine input cost but has become a strategic factor in farm management. In a year defined by volatility, those who invest in efficiency, precision, and adaptive growing strategies will be better positioned to sustain both quality and profitability in an increasingly uncertain global market.