09: 04: 2026
Fuel Fears Take off
Kenya’s floriculture industry, one of the country’s leading foreign exchange earners, is navigating a period of heightened uncertainty as global jet fuel supply concerns intensify following the ongoing Middle East conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. With air freight forming the backbone of Kenya’s flower exports, rising fuel costs and potential flight disruptions are beginning to cast a long shadow over growers.
Since late February, jet fuel prices have surged dramatically, nearly doubling in key markets such as the United States and climbing even higher in other regions. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy corridor, has choked the supply of both crude oil and refined products such as jet fuel. For airlines, fuel is the second-largest cost after labor, and this sudden spike is forcing difficult operational decisions.
Airlines Brace for Turbulence
Carriers worldwide are trimming flight schedules, raising fares, and introducing new surcharges to offset rising costs. Major airlines are preparing contingency plans that include reducing long-haul flights or even grounding aircraft if fuel shortages worsen. Early signs suggest that capacity cuts, particularly on international routes, are becoming increasingly likely.
Flowers on the Clock
For Kenyan flower growers, the impact is immediate and tangible. Fresh flowers are highly perishable and rely on frequent, reliable, and affordable air cargo to reach key markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Any reduction in flight frequency or cargo space can lead to shipment delays, higher freight costs, and reduced competitiveness in international markets.
Freight charges for flowers have already risen sharply, climbing nine percent to Sh545.6 per kilo, up from Sh493.6 per kilo, according to the Kenya Flower Council. The sector has already suffered losses totaling at least Sh623.5 million since the conflict began. Of this, $2.1 million represents flowers that perished before reaching their markets, while $2.7 million reflects reduced prices due to delayed arrivals and compromised quality. Farms heavily reliant on Middle Eastern markets have seen revenues drop by up to 75 percent, with weekly losses potentially exceeding $1.3 million if the situation persists. Five Gulf countries alone account for about 13.35 percent of Kenya’s flower export value, highlighting the critical role of airlines from the region in transporting perishable goods.
Rising Costs, Shrinking Margins
Higher fuel prices and rising freight charges are particularly concerning for growers operating on tight margins. In a price-sensitive global flower market, even small cost increases can erode Kenya’s competitive edge against producers in countries closer to major markets. Disruptions in air cargo capacity could also lead to oversupply at origin, further pressuring farmgate prices, especially during peak demand periods.
Rethinking the Route
Analysts warn that persistently high fuel prices could force deeper capacity cuts across the aviation sector. In response, growers and exporters are exploring more agile logistics strategies, including securing cargo space earlier, diversifying airline partners, and considering sea freight for less time-sensitive products. Strengthening coordination across the value chain will be essential to minimize disruptions and maintain market access.
A Vital Industry in a Volatile World
Despite these challenges, Kenya’s floriculture industry remains a vital contributor to the economy, generating around $835 million in 2024 and supporting thousands of jobs. The unfolding jet fuel crisis and rising freight costs underscore the sector’s vulnerability to global geopolitical shocks, highlighting the importance of efficiency, flexibility, and close market alignment for sustaining Kenya’s position in an increasingly unpredictable global trade environment.