Kenya is experiencing substantial crop losses and rising food insecurity, with an estimated economic impact of Sh1 trillion over the next decade due to the government’s removal of eight pesticide ingredients in 2023, as highlighted in a recent report.
Regulatory Policy
The changes in Kenya’s pesticide regulations appear to be influenced more by external trade demands than by the necessity for national food security. This has resulted in a ban on products that meet EU trade standards, rather than focusing on the food security needs of Kenya. This situation raises critical concerns about sovereignty and policy.
The ban was implemented without a clear transition plan or practical alternatives, putting farmers at risk.
“Many of these products were removed despite no confirmed threats to human or environmental health; the withdrawals seem to follow the EU’s precautionary principle instead of Kenya’s risk-based pesticide regulation framework,” according to a policy document reviewed by Floriweek.
The policy document, titled ‘Impact assessment on the withdrawal of eight active ingredients and associated pest control products in Kenya,’ was commissioned by the Agrochemical Association of Kenya as part of its Grow initiative and CropLife Kenya, outlining the far-reaching consequences of the ban.
“This issue goes beyond pesticides; it involves food security, farmer livelihoods, and national stability,” stated AAK CEO Eric Kimunguyi.
The elimination of 13 crop pest pathways without effective control measures, along with 20 others that have only one remaining option—which is expected to become ineffective in a few years due to pest resistance—poses a serious threat to Kenya’s food security.
The withdrawal of these ingredients, found in over 140 pest control products, could lead to a 7.28 percent decrease in GDP by 2025 alone.
Food Security
The crops affected by the ban represent 63% of Kenya’s daily calorie intake. Without imports, the average caloric consumption per person could drop to 1,872 by 2025 and further to 1,767 by 2034, placing it among the lowest globally.
For example, there is currently only one fungicide available for managing leaf rust in wheat, a disease that typically develops resistance within two to three growing seasons. If no measures are taken, control over this disease may be lost by 2026.
Economic Impact
The report forecasts that the withdrawal will result in a 17.6% reduction in income for agricultural producers by 2025, with smallholder farmers—almost half of whom live in poverty—bearing the brunt of this impact.
Based on 2022 prices, the total income loss for farmers in 2025 is projected to be Sh124.6 billion, escalating to Sh487.8 billion by 2034.
The economic fallout also threatens exports. Four of Kenya’s top five exports—tea, coffee, cut flowers, and fruits—are expected to see declines in production. Export revenues are predicted to fall by $492.7 million in 2025 and by $1.77 billion by 2034.
More alarmingly, some of the banned pesticides were crucial for controlling EU-listed quarantine pests. Their removal could prevent crops like snow peas, chillies, and cucumbers from entering EU markets, leading to an estimated export loss of Sh1.43 trillion over the next decade.
Recommendations
Proposals include establishing a transparent, nationally coordinated pesticide approval process, launching public awareness initiatives about alternative pest management strategies, and reevaluating the trade and national security implications of the withdrawals.
Moreover, there is an urgent need to accelerate research and the implementation of effective Integrated Pest Management (IPM) techniques.
The report warns that without prompt action, Kenya risks exacerbating hunger, increasing mortality rates, and reversing years of agricultural progress.